Next 5 years predicted to be abnormally hot

 August 15, 2018
This summer's worldwide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a new study. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming. 
Scientists predict the next few years will be abnormally hot. 
Credit: © worawut2524 / This summer's world-wide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. As will be the next few years, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.

Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus. A new method for predicting mean temperatures, however, suggests that the next few years will likely be hotter than expected.

The system, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models (1) to find 'analogues' of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities. The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century.

The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022 -- higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity.

Once the algorithm is 'learned' (a process which takes a few minutes), predictions are obtained in a few hundredths of a second on a laptop. In comparison, supercomputers require a week using traditional simulation methods.
For the moment, the method only yields an overall average, but scientists now would like to adapt it to make regional predictions and, in addition to temperatures, estimate precipitation and drought trends.

Knight Sha C .

There's a Huge 'Archive' of Heat Hiding Under Earth's Arctic Ice

By Rafi Letzter, Staff Writer | August 29, 2018 
Credit: NOAA Climate Program Office, NABOS 2006 Expedition
Warm water has penetrated deep into the frozen Arctic.
So far, it's still hiding out far beneath the surface, but according to a new study, there's a serious risk that this warm water could rise and trigger a new wave of melting in the interior of our planet's already shriveled northern ice cap.

Using older data from ships and newer data from permanent probes installed deep in the water, researchers showed that water in the Arctic Ocean's Canadian Basin has warmed significantly in recent years. That's thanks to a circular ocean current called the Beaufort Gyre, the researchers wrote, that pulls southern water north and under the Arctic's ice.

As the planet has warmed, they found, the water delivered north along the Gyre has gotten warmer too. And once that heat gets to the Arctic ocean, it gets trapped there, so those permanent probes detect it year-round. [Photos Reveal How Earth's Glaciers Have Rapidly Disappeared]

The trapping effect is the result of the Arctic Ocean's distinct layers of water, said lead study author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.

"Fresh water's on the top, and salty water's denser, so it's on the bottom," Timmermans told Live Science. "These warm waters, they're saltier. So they're held at depth — insulated" by the layer of colder, fresh water above them.

A figure from the paper reveals where scientists found extra heat hidden in the Arctic.
As the planet rapidly, unnaturally warmed due to climate change and the ice farther south melted, the researchers found, the more southern waters began absorbing sunlight that once would have been reflected back into space by white ice. And that extra energy made its way north under the ice, where it stayed.

This created a source of "archived" heat in the planet's far north, which Timmermans and her co-authors showed has increased steadily each year.

"We had seen [the deep Arctic Ocean] getting warmer with data points here and there, but something we hadn't appreciated before was just the slow and steady, obvious increase in the heat content," she said.

The warmth under the ice hasn't dipped or varied significantly since the 1980s, she added. It's just kept marching upward "like a staircase."

The study shows that climate change doesn't only threaten the Arctic through the direct melting of ice along the northern ice cap's edges, Timmermans said. Instead, all the extra heat now present in our planet presents a long-term threat to the northern ice, independent of year-to-year shifts in weather patterns. Over time, she said, that heat will break through the insulating fresh water above it, and eat away at the planet's remaining northern sea ice from within.

The study was published today (Aug. 29) in the journal Science Advances.
Originally published on Live Science.
Thanx  Rafi Letzter
Crusader Jenny , Nanook & Mika

Poppa & Me First Day of Kindergarten

Hello everyone  , I was busy going to school  , I got a new teacher   he is nice   he  said we will get along  fine   he talk like he is chewing  something    mama say he is tie tongue  I ask  daddy why  he said  my teacher tonge is close to bottom of  his mouth 

He is lazy  he make the kids write our work on the black board  he like CC write on board  he say she  write  good   I say CC is a girl and  all griel write better than boys 
CC say wait  until mr  Harris meet mama   I say CC  we will not get in troube for mama to come here   he will talk to mama like he talk to  Danny  mama  we will laugh  mama will   run him off  he will talk to mama like she talk tp him   CC say it beter uncle Gil come   I laugh  say yes beter for  mr Harris 

I  will tell you about my first day in kindnegarten  it wa so fun  my teacher  was mis  Cox  I like her    mis Cox like to feel poppa haid  she say it  feel like  white silk    daddy hair will be like poppa   daddy say mama is make his hair  go  white   

mis Cox  say play game    mis Cox say sit on floor in cirle    poppa sit on floor  with us   mis Cox say poppa   you not sit on floor  poppa say  yes I do I kid in ttthe  room  poppa say I want to play    poppa say on floor  we throw the ball   mis Cox sat in chair watch us  poppa get  ball  throw at mis Cox  we laugh  

mis  Cox tell poppa sat in cornr  poppa say  you sit with me   mis cox say no  you sit in coenr  you be bad  poppa  laugh  say mis Cox  you not know bad  I will show you bad   poppa start sing  poppa say kids  you sing   we will have fun   mis Cox sing   poppa say get up kids   we will sing   dance    we had  fun   

mis Cox say poppa  come every day   you make it fun to the kids   poppa say  he will be back  
we have partys  at  barn poppa  invite mis Cox   mis Cox like  dance with poppa  daddy say mis Cox like poppa   Eloise say poppa may marry mis Cox  daddy laugh   say it not  but  2 pwoplw poppa would marry   one marry   other  is like poppa  they love  each  , not marry  it ruin they  frendship  my siters  big brother  ask poppa  who they are  poppa smile  poppa never tell us   daddy say one day he will tell us   Jenny say daddy   did poppa want to marry them   daddy say poppa could not marry them   
one here  say  tell poppa both will alway be in love with they  first love   it will ruin the love  they have  for the other   daddy say  the other was marry   daddy say he not know if the other lady  knew    
Jenny say one day it will come  to her who  the other is   MeMa say Jenny is  like mama    dhe has  second sight   I say Jenny keep your sight   I laugh .

What you doing for climate change    my brother   sistrs   not post   we   start school   it is  more to do when school start now   we catch up now  we still here  not go away    are you do your part to help  mother earth   I hope so  every litle bite help  .
I have more to tell you about poppa   I have to stop  I  got lot of  home work  poppa say Man  do your home work  learn  all you can   I say poppa I will be like you    my daddy is like you poppa he is smart  

I am in fifth grade    I will study  get good grade   I learn a lot  from my poppa   and I love him    poppa say he will never leave me  he will be with me always    poppa is in my heart   when I feel sad  I think about poppa  and  laugh  poppa was  always happy   until  a fool make him mad .

I forgot to tell evryone  mama was out of twon helping daddy  boss  mama id back   we are so happy  my mama smell good    mama  not go   boss  with daddy  mama go because poppa is in heaven   poppa can not go with daddy  to help him  poppa love daddy so much .

Hope you enjoy  my poppa story 

Man  C.

Arctic Wolf ...Song of the wolf provided by the Cheyennes





As is the case with most problems on this planet, the fundamental cause can be traced back to human activities.

Ironically, the Arctic wolf has been, until recently, the only sub-species of wolf not directly endangered by people. Its isolation has meant it has not been subject to a lot of hunting and habitat destruction that have affected other species and sub-species. Although the pelt of this species is highly prized by hunters.

Now, the Arctic wolf is threatened by climate change which has produced extreme weather variations that have reduced its food supply. The Arctic wolf feeds mainly on Muskox, Arctic hares and Caribou but these animals face increasing difficulty in finding food as a result of the changed weather patterns. Inevitably this means that those animals are not so plentiful and therefore, in its turn, the Arctic wolf faces a diminishing food supply.

The presence of humans and/or their artifacts is now also becoming a problem as an industrial presence increases with mining exploration, mines, pipelines and roads intruding on their environment.

What can be done? The only significant activity of which I am aware is to reduce or eliminate global warming.

Rare Canadian Lynx ... Not many left in the wild

 

The Canadian lynx is a wild and elusive cat that lives in the northern forests from the Northeast to the Rocky Mountains. Its thick fur and large paws helps it hunt showshoe rabbits in the far northern wilderness. The large thickly furred feet stop the lynx from sinking in the snow.  It is  a rare and very beautiful animal. It is now endangered.

It has been noted by scientists that in an effort to survive as a species, the lynx has been cross-breeding with bobcats in some areas of the country.

 

Marine heat waves threaten underwater wildlife

In this 2013 file photo, a Guadalupe fur seal, foreground, passes by as SeaWorld animal rescue team member Heather Ruce feeds a California sea lion at a rescue facility in San Diego, with rescue crews seeing a higher than average amount of stranded sea lions. Ocean temperatures along with land temperatures have been on the rise for almost a decade.

Even the oceans are breaking temperature records in this summer of heat waves. Off the San Diego coast, scientists earlier this month recorded all-time high seawater temperatures since daily measurements began in 1916.
"Just like we have heat waves on land, we also have heat waves in the ocean," said Art Miller of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Between 1982 and 2016, the number of "marine heat waves" roughly doubled, and likely will become more common and intense as the planet warms, a study released Wednesday in the journal Nature found. Prolonged periods of extreme heat in the oceans can damage kelp forests and coral reefs, and harm fish and other marine life.
"This trend will only further accelerate with global warming," said Thomas Frolicher, a climate scientist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, who led the research.
His team defined marine heat waves as extreme events in which sea-surface temperatures exceeded the 99th percentile of measurements for a given location. Because oceans both absorb and release heat more slowly than air, most marine heat waves last for at least several days — and some for several weeks, said Frolicher.

 

This image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration illustrates ocean temperatures and their departure from normal (1981-2010). Ocean temperatures in 2017 were the sixth warmest on record. (NOAA)

"We knew that average temperatures were rising. What we haven't focused on before is that the rise in the average comes at you in clumps of very hot days — a shock of several days or weeks of very high temperatures," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University climate scientist who was not involved in the study.
Many sea critters have evolved to survive within a fairly narrow band of temperatures compared to creatures on land, and even incremental warming can be disruptive.
Some free-swimming sea animals like bat rays or lobsters may shift their routines. But stationary organisms like coral reefs and kelp forests "are in real peril," said Michael Burrows, an ecologist at the Scottish Marine Institute, who was not part of the research.

The threat to coral reefs

In 2016 and 2017, persistent high ocean temperatures off eastern Australia killed off as much as half of the shallow water corals of the Great Barrier Reef — with significant consequences for other creatures dependent upon the reef.
"One in every four fish in the ocean lives in or around coral reefs," said Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a marine biologist at the University of Queensland. "So much of the ocean's biodiversity depends upon a fairly small amount of the ocean floor."
The latest study relied on satellite data and other records of sea-surface temperatures including from ships and buoys.

 

It didn't include the recent record-breaking measurements off Scripps Pier in San Diego — which reached 79.5 degrees Fahrenheit on August 9 in the water — but Frolicher and Miller said the event was an example of a marine heat wave.
Miller said he knew something was odd when he spotted a school of bat rays — which typically only congregate in pockets of warm water — swimming just off the pier earlier this month.
Changes in ocean circulation associated with warmer surface waters will likely mean decreased production of phytoplankton — the tiny organisms that form the basis of the marine food web, he said. Phytoplankton is the most important cornerstone at the bottom of the food chain for all marine life. The smallest marine life eats them and are then consumed by bigger fish and so on up the food chain.
Marine biologists nicknamed a patch of persistent high temperatures in the Pacific Ocean between 2013 and 2016 "the Blob." During that period, decreased phytoplankton production led to a cascading lack of food for many species, causing thousands of California sea lion pups to starve, said Miller, who had no role in the Nature study.
"We've repeatedly set new heat records. It's not surprising, but it is shocking," he said. The consequences of marine heat waves spread like ripples to all fish and marine life and threatens our largest food source.