Really alarming science of climate change facing a challenge from trump

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Everyone can learn a lot  how to  help  the planet  get healthy again  oldest member  that is in our group is uncle Harvey  he will be 87  the 19 June   uncle Harvey  say not to tell  the  cute chicks 
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Knight Man

Climate Scientist Who Coined ‘Global Warming’ Dies: Interesting Facts about the Grandfather of Climate Science Wallace Smith Broecker

SCIENCE Team Latestly  Feb 20, 2019 11:33 AM IST
Wallace Smith Broecker (Photo Credits: The Earth Institute, Columbia University)
Wallace Smith Broecker, a professor at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, known for coining the term ‘Global Warming’ passed away at the age of 87. A spokesperson for the university’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory said that Broecker had been suffering from health problems in the recent months. The climate scientist is best known for bringing the term Global Warming into common parlance with a paper he wrote in 1975. Back then, he sounded warning bells that rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would lead to increased warming and related environmental problems. Here are important facts about Wallace Smith Broecker. Climate Change Effect: Oceans are Warming Faster Than Scientists Thought, Says New Research.
Known to friends, peers and admirers as “Wally,” Broecker, born in 1931, is considered one among the greatest geoscientists.
His area of research has been the role of oceans in climate change.
He was a pioneer in radiocarbon and isotope dating – the methods used for creating a map of the history of Earth’s climate fluctuations. India And China Are Leading in Increasing Earth's Green Cover Through Various Agriculture Initiatives. 
Apart from naming Global Warming, Broecker also discovered Ocean Conveyor Belt and coined the term.
 It also happens to be the most important discovery in the history of oceanography and one of the most crucial ones related to climate.
Broecker has won many awards, which includes the Vetlesen Prize in 1987, National Medal of Science given to him by Bill Clinton in 1996 and the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement in 2002.
Among his highly-acclaimed books is Fixing Climax, co-authored with writer Robert Kunzing, where he recommends making carbon “scrubbers” that will cycle carbon out of the environment and send it back to earth’s crust.
In the book, he says burning fossil fuels isn’t bad as far as only climate change is concerned, but dumping the waste into the atmosphere is.
Unlike the others, Broecker was realistic in his approach towards using fossil fuels, given humanity’s dependence on them.
In a BBC talk show Hardtalk, he explained: “I think we have an option and the option is to let them industrialise but take care of the problem by capturing and storing the CO2.” The real challenge is to “put away” the waste.
Known as the "Grandfather of Climate Science" and the "Dean of Climate Scientists", Broecker’s contributions to climate science has been invaluable. His discoveries have changed the way we look at and understand the environment. His death has dealt a big blow to the field of climate science.

Thanx  SCIENCE  Team Latestly
Crusader Jenny , Nanook , Knight Mika  & Knight  Moto

What is the greenhouse effect?

What is a greenhouse?

Drawing of greenhouse, with glass walls and roof, plants growing inside. Sunlight coming in through roof, but bounces off inside of roof and cannot escape.

A greenhouse is made of glass. It traps the Sun's energy inside and keeps the plants warm, even in winter.

A greenhouse is a house made of glass. It has glass walls and a glass roof. People grow tomatoes and flowers and other plants in them. A greenhouse stays warm inside, even during winter. Sunlight shines in and warms the plants and air inside. But the heat is trapped by the glass and can't escape. So during the daylight hours, it gets warmer and warmer inside a greenhouse, and stays pretty warm at night too.

How is Earth a greenhouse?

Earth's atmosphere does the same thing as the greenhouse. Gases in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide do what the roof of a greenhouse does. During the day, the Sun shines through the atmosphere. Earth's surface warms up in the sunlight. At night, Earth's surface cools, releasing the heat back into the air. But some of the heat is trapped by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. That's what keeps our Earth a warm and cozy 59 degrees Fahrenheit, on average.

Drawing shows Earth, surrounded by atmosphere containing greenhouse gases, and Sun shining through. Labels say 'During the day, when the sun's energy reaches Earth's atmosphere, most of it goes right through. Some bounces off, back into space. At night, most of the Sun's energy escapes back into space. But some is trapped inside the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases, further warming Earth.
Greenhouse effect of Earth's atmosphere keeps some of the Sun's energy from escaping back into space at night.

Is it warm in here, or is it just me?

You might think 59 degrees Fahrenheit is pretty cold. Or, you might think that's warm. It depends on what you are used to. That temperature would melt all the Arctic ice. Yes, it's colder than 59 degrees in a lot of places, and hotter than 59 degrees in a lot of places, but 59 is the average of all of the places.

Drawing shows Earth, surrounded by atmosphere containing too much greenhouse gas, and Sun shining through. But some is trapped inside the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases. The atmosphere is colored yellow and orange to show that it is warming up too much.
If the atmosphere causes too much greenhouse effect, Earth just gets warmer and warmer.

The point is, if the greenhouse effect is too strong, Earth gets warmer and warmer. This is what is happening now. Too much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the air are making the greenhouse effect stronger.

Why can't we just plant more trees?

You might well wonder, because, after all, trees—like all plants—take in carbon dioxide and give off oxygen.

Well, that might help a little. But, instead of planting more forests, some people are cutting them down and burning them to make more farm land to feed the growing human population.

A forest burns. (Photograph copyright Woods Hole Research Center).

Photo of white, sick-looking corals under water.
These coral are sick. They should be colorful, not bleached out. Credit: Bruno de Giusti.

The ocean also absorbs a lot, but not all, of the excess carbon dioxide in the air. Unfortunately, the increased carbon dioxide in the ocean changes the water, making it more acidic. Ocean creatures don't like acidic water. The bleached out, unhealthy coral in this picture is just one example of what acidic water can do.

Don't clouds keep Earth cooler?

Water in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas. The atmosphere contains a lot of water. This water can be in the form of a gas—water vapor—or in the form of a liquid—clouds. Clouds are water vapor that has cooled and condensed back into tiny droplets of liquid water.


Earth's clouds as seen from space.

Water in the clouds holds in some of the heat from Earth's surface. But the bright white tops of clouds also reflect some of the sunlight back to space. So with clouds, some energy from the Sun never even reaches Earth's surface.

How much the clouds affect the warming or cooling of Earth's surface is one of those tricky questions that several NASA missions are aiming to answer.

Cloud effects on Earth's radiation. Diagram shows how clouds reflect some of the Sun's energy back to space.
Clouds prevent some of the Sun's energy from ever reaching Earth's surface.

Or do clouds make Earth warmer?
Here is a riddle—a serious one, not a joke:

As the ocean warms up, more water evaporates into the air. So does more water vapor then mean more warming? And does more warming mean more water vapor? And ‘round and ‘round we go?

Drawing shows how clouds have a greenhouse effect at night. Clouds trap some of the heat coming from Earth's surface, preventing it from escaping into space.
At night, clouds trap some of the heat from Earth's surface. Thus, it does not escape back into space.

Or, since more water vapor means more clouds, will the fluffy white clouds reflect enough sunlight back into space to make up for the warming?

Drawing shows arrows that represent sun's energy reflecting off tops of clouds.
During the day, clouds reflect the Sun's energy back to space, before it has a chance to heat Earth's surface.

This cloud riddle has scientists scratching their heads and trying to figure it out. NASA is helping with satellites like Aqua and CloudSat, which study the Earth's water cycle and clouds in 3-D.

Image taken by a satellite of a hurricane. Below is a cross-section of the storm clouds, colored to show how much water is contained in the clouds at different heights.
The top image is a hurricane, as seen by a satellite. Below is a cross-section of the storm clouds. This colorful image was made with data from the CloudSat satellite. It shows with different colors how much water is contained in the clouds at different heights.
Thanx NASA Climate Kids
Knight Man

 

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Climate of North American cities will shift hundreds of miles in one generation

 February 12, 2019 
Source:   University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science 
Summary:
In one generation, the climate experienced in many North American cities is projected to change to that of locations hundreds of miles away -- or to a new climate unlike any found in North America today. A new study and interactive web application aim to help the public understand how climate change will impact the lives of people who live in urban areas of the United States and Canada. These new climate analyses match the expected future climate in each city with the current climate of another location, providing a relatable picture of what is likely in store. 

Under current high emissions the average urban dweller is going to have to drive more than 500 miles to the south to find a climate similar to their home city by 2080. 
Credit: Matthew Fitzpatrick/University of Maryland Center for Environmental 
In one generation, the climate experienced in many North American cities is projected to change to that of locations hundreds of miles away -- or to a new climate unlike any found in North America today. A new study and interactive web application aim to help the public understand how climate change will impact the lives of people who live in urban areas of the United States and Canada. These new climate analyses match the expected future climate in each city with the current climate of another location, providing a relatable picture of what is likely in store.

"Within the lifetime of children living today, the climate of many regions is projected to change from the familiar to conditions unlike those experienced in the same place by their parents, grandparents, or perhaps any generation in millennia," said study author Matt Fitzpatrick of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. "Many cities could experience climates with no modern equivalent in North America."

Scientists analyzed 540 urban areas that encompassed approximately 250 million inhabitants in the United States and Canada. For each urban area, they mapped the similarity between that city's future climate expected by the 2080s and contemporary climate in the western hemisphere north of the equator using 12 measures of climate, including minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation during the four seasons.

The study also mapped climate differences under two emission trajectories: unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5), the scenario most in line with what might be expected given current policies and the speed of global action, and mitigated emissions (RCP4.5), which assumes policies are put in place to limit emissions, such as the Paris Agreement.

Climate-analog mapping is a statistical technique that matches the expected future climate at one location -- your city of residence, for instance -- with the current climate of another familiar location to provide a place-based understanding of climate change. Combining climate mapping with the interactive web application provides a powerful tool to communicate how climate change may impact the lives of a large portion of the population of the United States and Canada.

"We can use this technique to translate a future forecast into something we can better conceptualize and link to our own experiences," said Fitzpatrick. "It's my hope that people have that 'wow' moment, and it sinks in for the first time the scale of the changes we're expecting in a single generation."

The study found that by the 2080s, even if limits are placed on emissions, the climate of North American urban areas will feel substantially different, and in many cases completely unlike contemporary climates found anywhere in the western hemisphere north of the equator. If emissions continue unabated throughout the 21st century, the climate of North American urban areas will become, on average, most like the contemporary climate of locations about 500 miles away and mainly to the south. In the eastern U.S., nearly all urban areas, including Boston, New York, and Philadelphia, will become most similar to contemporary climates to the south and southwest. Climates of most urban areas in the central and western U.S. will become most similar to contemporary climates found to the south or southeast.

"Under the business as usual emissions the average urban dweller is going to have to drive nearly 1,000 km to the south to find a climate like that expected in their home city by 2080," said Fitzpatrick. "Not only is climate changing, but climates that don't presently exist in North America will be prevalent in a lot of urban areas."

The climate of cities in the northeast will tend to feel more like the humid subtropical climates typical of parts of the Midwest or southeastern U.S. today -- warmer and wetter in all seasons. For instance, unless we take action to mitigate emissions, Washington, D.C. will feel more like northern Mississippi. The climates of western cities are expected to become more like those of the desert Southwest or southern California -- warmer in all seasons, with changes in the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation. San Francisco's climate will resemble that of Los Angeles. New York will feel more like northern Arkansas.

"Similar efforts to communicate climate change often focus on temperature only, but climate is more than just temperature. It also includes the amount precipitation an area receives, when it falls during the year, and how much arrives as snow versus rain," said Fitzpatrick. "Climate change will lead to not only warming, but also will alter precipitation patterns."
Search the interactive climate map for your location atwww.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates.
The paper, "Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century," by Matt Fitzpatrick of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and Robert Dunn of North Carolina State University, is published in Nature Communications on February 12.
Story Source:
Materials provided by University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Knight Man

Climate Change May Hurt Babies' Heart

By Yasemin Saplakoglu, Staff Writer | January 31, 2019
Climate change is melting ice, intensifying storms and bleaching coral reefs, and now, a new study suggests that it could also take a toll on babies' hearts.

The study, published yesterday (Jan. 30) in the Journal of the American Heart Association, suggests that, starting in 2025, extreme heat brought on by climate change could increase the number of babies born with heart defects in the United States. The greatest increase would be seen in the Midwest, followed by the Northeast and the South, researchers reported.

Congenital heart defects, or heart abnormalities that infants are born with, affect around 40,000 newborns every year in the U.S., according to a statement from the American Heart Association. [7 Ways Pregnant Women Affect Babies]

It's unclear why a pregnant woman's heat exposure can lead to a congenital heart defect in a baby, but animal studies suggest that heat could cause cell death in fetuses and interact with heat-sensitive proteins that are important in development, according to the statement.

An earlier study from the same group of researchers found that women's exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy was linked to an increased risk of congenital heart defects in babies. The study included women who gave birth between 1997 and 2007.

In this new study, the researchers combine that data with climate change temperature projections.

The team built upon climate change forecasts gathered by NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. They simulated changes in daily maximum temperatures for various geographic regions in the U.S. and calculated how much heat and extreme heat events pregnant women would be exposed to in the spring and summer.

Between 2025 and 2035, they found that climate-change-driven heat events might spur an additional 7,000 cases of congenital heart defects, according to the statement. They found that most of these cases would be in the Midwest, followed by the Northeast and the South.

"Although this study is preliminary, it would be prudent for women in the early weeks of pregnancy to avoid heat extremes similar to the advice given to persons with cardiovascular and pulmonary disease during heart spells," senior author Dr. Shao Lin, an associate director of environmental health services with the University at Albany, State University of New York, said in the statement.

It's especially important for those planning to become pregnant or those who are three to eight weeks pregnant to avoid extreme heat, she said.

Live Science previously reported that pregnant women who are exposed to heat during early pregnancy can develop hyperthermia, or extremely high body temperature, which increases the risk of having babies with defects of the brain or spinal cord.
Thanx  Yasemin  Saplakoglu

Crusader Jenny , Nanook , Knight Mika  & Knight Moto

UN climate change conference, Poland, December 2018 - Did we learn anything new??

Greta Thunberg: The Swedish teen inspiring climate strikes

 

 

Swedish teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg during her climate strike outside the Swedish parliament.

Since then, she's become a global phenomenon, speaking at the UN and Davos. Her climate strike has inspired thousands of other young people across the world to carry out similar protests.
 

Climate change chimes with young people in a way that is sometimes missing with older people, who made up the bulk of negotiators in Poland.

Delegates to the UN climate conference in Poland have reached agreement on how to implement the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, which comes into force in 2020. What are the key points to come out of the meeting?

1. The rules are key to the game

However dull it may be, the operational rules for the 2015 Paris climate agreement will govern the way the world tackles climate change for decades to come.
The key thing was not to unravel the carefully negotiated Paris agreement by having one set of rules for the rich countries and another one for the poor.
By that measure the conference was a success with China showing leadership by not pushing for a return to the old ways of countries who did, and countries who didn't.
Also helping that effort was the US. Ensuring that the China and the US face similar regulations has long been a key of American policy.

Keeping everyone on the same page also delighted the EU. Climate commissioner Miguel Arias Canete explained how the new rules would work.
"We have a system of transparency, we have a system of reporting, we have rules to measure our emissions, we have a system to measure the impacts of our policies compared to what science recommends."

 

To keep everyone in check, the rules will also contain a compliance mechanism, which means that countries that don't submit their reports on time will face an inquiry.
The new regulations are "flexible" for developing countries, meaning they can sign up to the rules at a later date.

2. Science is worth fighting for

One of the biggest rows at this meeting was over a key scientific report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A group of countries including Saudi Arabia, US, Kuwait and Russia refused to "welcome" the IPCC study.  They merely wanted to "note" the contents. Efforts to find a compromise ended in failure.
However that was not the end of the matter.
The vast majority of countries felt that acknowledging the science was critical at this conference.
Their efforts did finally ensure that the IPCC was recognized - but many felt it was a token effort.
"That science is unsettling and it doesn't connect it to the need to do more," said Camilla Born from the environmental think tank E3G.
"The deal looks at it in isolation, it's an elegant compromise but it's not really enough."

3. International spirit is still alive

Many countries had worried that with the rise of nationalism in many countries and the recent election of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil's president, the international co-operation needed to tackle climate change might be in danger.
For many getting agreement here in Katowice was less about technical rules and more about showing that the international spirit is still alive and has teeth.
"I think the beauty of multilateralism is that it is the effort of everybody," said Spanish Ecology Minister Teresa Ribera.
"And what we have seen is that everybody has supported the package, no single country has decided to step down.
"It is very difficult. It is like organizing a party for 200 friends, and there's a single menu that everybody has to eat. It is not so easy but we have got it. That's fantastic!"

4. A win for the process but not for the planet?

While negotiators have been congratulating themselves on a job well done in landing the rulebook, there are many voices here who feel that the agreement does not go far enough.
They point to the strength of the science, and the public recognition of the impacts of climate change seen this year in heatwaves and wildfires.
Many environmental campaigners believe that Katowice Poland was a missed opportunity for radical action.
"We have ended up here with more of a coal trade fair than a climate convention," said Mohamed Adow from Christian Aid, referring to the efforts to promote coal by Poland and the US at this conference.
"We haven't acted in good faith, particularly for the young. That we take seriously what science is telling us and we are responding to it. That message didn't come through.
"If people think the rulebook is the way to get the world on that path, it is not robust or ambitious enough."

5. New voices are emerging

One of the most striking things about this conference of the parties was the presence of energized young people in far greater numbers than ever seen at a COP before.
The sense that perhaps this UN process doesn't quite connect with the modern world was summed up best by Mohamed Nasheed, the former president of the Maldives and now their lead climate negotiator.
"Almost 10 years since I was last at these climate negotiations, I must say, nothing much seems to have changed."
"We are still using the same old, dinosaur language. Still saying the same old words.
"Still making the same tedious points."
It would be hard to argue with this view given the shenanigans that played out at the end, when one country, Brazil, held up progress at the talks on one issue for a couple of days.
Perhaps the most memorable image of this meeting was that of 15-year-old Swedish student Greta Thunberg.

This teenager who has organized school strikes in Sweden held daily press conferences here to drive home her message that platitudes and warm words just aren't enough anymore.
Her message was sharp and succinct.
"We cannot solve a crisis without treating it as a crisis."

Trump taunts Amy Klobuchar for talking global warming in 'virtual blizzard'

by Melissa Quinn            | February 10, 2019 
President Trump on Sunday again sought to cast doubt on the existence of climate change, ridiculing Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., for discussing global warming at her presidential campaign kickoff in a “virtual blizzard of snow.”

“Well, it happened again. Amy Klobuchar announced that she is running for President, talking proudly of fighting global warming while standing in a virtual blizzard of snow, ice and freezing temperatures. Bad timing. By the end of her speech she looked like a Snowman(woman)!” he tweeted. 

 Klobuchar formally announced Sunday her candidacy for president at an outdoor event in Minnesota as snow fell around her and blanketed the crowd there to cheer her on.

As part of her platform, the Democratic senator said as president she would “put forth sweeping legislation to invest in green jobs and infrastructure.” Klobuchar also vowed the U.S. would rejoin the Paris Agreement on the first day of her presidency. Trump announced in June 2017 the U.S. was withdrawing from the international accord within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Klobuchar is now the fifth Democratic senator to officially enter the 2020 presidential race, following Sens. Kamala Harris of California, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

In the past, Trump has cited cold weather in an effort to cast doubt on climate change. In November, he tweeted, “Brutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter ALL RECORDS — Whatever happened to Global Warming?”

But, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pointed out last month, in response to another mocking Trump tweet, "Winter storms don't prove that global warming isn't happening."

Most scientists believe climate change is occuring and that it is accelerated by fossil fuel consumption. While global temperatures on average are on the rise, that does not preclude cold weather.
Thanx Melissa Quinn

Knight Sha

Environment in multiple crises - report

The "human footprint" is creating multiple challenges, including a trash crisis in the oceans

 

Politicians and policymakers have failed to grasp the gravity of the environmental crisis facing the Earth, a report claims. The think-tank IPPR says human impacts have reached a critical stage and threaten to destabilize society and the global economy.

Scientists warn of a potentially deadly combination of factors. These include climate change, mass loss of species, topsoil erosion, forest felling and acidifying oceans. The report from the Institute for Public Policy Research says these factors are "driving a complex, dynamic process of environmental destabilization that has reached critical levels.
"This destabilization is occurring at speeds unprecedented in human history and, in some cases, over billions of years."

So what is needed?

The IPPR warns that the window of opportunity to avoid catastrophic outcomes is rapidly closing.
The authors urge three shifts in political understanding: on the scale and pace of environmental breakdown; the implications for societies; and the subsequent need for transformative change.
​They say since 2005, the number of floods across the world has increased by 15 times, extreme temperature events by 20 times, and wildfires seven-fold.
At least climate change features in policy discussions, they say – but other vitally important impacts barely figure.

 

 

Extreme forest logging

What issues are being under-played?

• Topsoil is being lost 10 to 40 times faster than it is being replenished by natural processes ​
• Since the mid-20th Century, 30% of the world's arable land has become unproductive due to erosion
• 95% of the Earth's land areas could become degraded by 2050

The IIPR says many scientists believe we have entered a new era of rapid environmental change.
The report warns: "We define this as the 'age of environmental breakdown' to better highlight the severity of the scale, pace and implications of environmental destabilization resulting from aggregate human activity."

Will society take the solutions offered?

Simon Lewis, Professor of Global Change Science, said, 
"Future problems with food supplies could cause price spikes that drive civil unrest, while increases in levels of migration can strain societies.
"Both together could overload political institutions and global networks of trade.
"This century will be marked by rapid social and environmental change - that is certain. What is less clear is if societies can make wise political choices to avoid disaster in the future."

Harriet Bulkeley, a geography professor, said, that the IPPR paper was a good interpretation of the current evidence, but she said it raised the question of how firm evidence of environmental threats had to be to prompt governments to action.

"We know lots of good things to do," she said, "but often the argument is made that we need to have 'evidence-based policy'.

"This can, of course, be used as an excuse for delay. So, I guess the question is how much more evidence is needed for action?"

President Trump, here’s ‘what the hell is going on’ with global warming

A map shows global surface temperature anomalies for 2014 through 2018. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red, and lower than normal temperatures are shown in blue. (Kathryn Mersmann/NASA - Scientific Visualization Studio/AP)
By Editorial Board February 7
“WHAT THE hell is going on with Global Waming?” President Trump tweeted last week in the midst of a cold snap. “Please come back fast, we need you!”

If Mr. Trump had consulted scientists in the government he works for, they could have helped with his basic understanding, as well as his spelling: The warming of the Earth is unmistakable, as seen in a global temperature record that offers no reason for laughter. Experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday that 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record, according to two separate estimates, one from each agency.

A single year’s temperature readings do not constitute a trend. But there is a trend. The five warmest years have come in the past five years. Eighteen of the 19 warmest years on record have come since the beginning of this century. That 2018 did not quite match the record-setting 2016 for warmth is in part because a warming El Niño effect in 2016 raised temperatures even higher than human influence alone would have. By contrast, 2018 saw a cooling La Niña and was still fourth-warmest. The overall direction is relentless: This decade will be warmer than the last, which was warmer than the one before it, and so on.

As more and more of their predictions have come true, scientists have become more confident in their models — and more alarmed. Some effects of climate change remain difficult to predict or plan for. Warming could even contribute to cold snaps such as the one that prompted Mr. Trump to mock climate science on Twitter last week. Other effects are all too predictable: rising seas, stronger storms, more heat waves, more droughts, more flooding, invasive species, the proliferation of disease, depleted fisheries, dying ecosystems, more acidic oceans, crop failures, mass migrations, days so hot that people cannot work. Experts warn that Americans are already likely feeling global warming’s influence in the super-wet storms that have pummeled places such as Houston, feeding on extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

In the face of ever-rising evidence, the president did not even mention climate change in Tuesday’s State of the Union address. His administration still intends to remove the United States from the Paris climate agreement, the world’s best hope to get all major contributing countries moving in the same direction. While the Trump administration ripped up clean-air rules, U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions shot up 3.4 percent last year, putting the lie to the argument that market forces alone will adequately drive down the country’s carbon footprint.

Some Democrats, meanwhile, have announced a “ Green New Deal” whose goal seems to be radically reshaping U.S. society and vastly expanding government rather than simply addressing the climate problem, which is hard enough — and important enough. Though not nearly as harmful as Mr. Trump’s rank denialism, engaging in this sort of fantasy also hurts the cause of practically addressing the issue.

What is the 'Green New Deal?'

An ambitious platform seeking to combat climate change is being championed by progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.). (Video: Adriana Usero/Photo: Brian Monroe/The Washington Post)

The world needs rational U.S. leadership. Unfortunately, global warming will not stop in the meantime.
Thanx  Editorial Board

Knight Jonny

Earth Headed for Hottest Decade on Record

  

The world is in the middle of what is likely to be the warmest 10 years since records began in 1850, say scientists. The Met Office is forecasting that temperatures for each of the next five years are likely to be 1C or more above pre-industrial levels.

In the next five years there's also a chance we'll see a year in which the average global temperature rise could be greater than 1.5C. That's seen as a critical threshold for climate change.  If the data matches the forecast, then the decade from 2014-2023 will be the warmest in more than 150 years of record keeping.

Will the forecast temperature rises bust the Paris climate agreement?

The Met Office says that 2015 was the first year in which the global annual average surface temperature reached 1C above the pre-industrial level, which is generally taken to mean the temperatures between 1850 and 1900.
Each year since then, the global average has hovered close to or above the 1C mark. Now, the Met Office says that trend is likely to continue or increase over the next five years

 

"We've just made this year's forecasts and they go out to 2023 and what they suggest is rapid warming globally," Prof Adam Scaife, head of long term forecasting at the Met Office, said.
"By looking at individual years in that forecast we can now see for the first time, there is a risk of a temporary exceedance of the all-important 1.5C threshold level set out in the Paris climate agreement."
Last October, UN scientists published a special report on the long-term impacts of a temperature rise of 1.5C.  They concluded that it would take a massive carbon cutting effort to keep the world from tipping over the limit by 2030. The Met Office analysis now says there's a 10% chance of this happening within the next five years.
"It's the first time the forecasts have shown a significant risk of exceedance. We are talking about individual years fluctuating above the 1.5 degree level," said Prof Scaife.
"But the fact that that can happen now due to a combination of general warming and the fluctuations due to things like El Niño events in the next few years does mean we are getting close to that threshold."

 

 

Temperature data for the five major global climate databases
 

How confident is the Met Office of its prediction?

The Met Office says it has a 90% confidence limit in the forecasts for the years ahead.
It says that from 2019 to 2023, we will see temperatures ranging from 1.03C to 1,57C above the 1850-1900 level, with enhanced warming over much of the globe, especially over areas like the Arctic.
The research team says it is pretty certain in its predictions because of its past experience. The team's previous forecast, made in 2013, predicted the rapid rate of warming that's been observed over the past five years. It even predicted some of the lesser known details such as the patch of cooling seen in the North Atlantic and the cooler spots in the Southern Ocean

 

If the observations over the next five years match the forecasts, then the decade between 2014 and 2023 will be the warmest in more than 150 years of records.

What about other climate agencies?

The Met Office forecast comes as a number of agencies publish their full analysis of temperature data from 2018, showing it to be the fourth warmest since records began in 1850.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has published an analysis of five major international datasets showing that the 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22.
"Temperatures are only part of the story. Extreme and high impact weather affected many countries and millions of people, with devastating repercussions for economies and ecosystems in 2018," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas

 

                                             

"Many of the extreme weather events are consistent with what we expect from a changing climate. This is a reality we need to face up to. Greenhouse gas emission reduction and climate adaptation measures should be a top global priority," he said.
Other researchers in the field said the new forecast for the next five years was in line with expectations, given the record level of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere in 2018.
"The forecast from the Met Office is, unfortunately, no surprise," said Dr Anna Jones, an atmospheric chemist at the British Antarctic Survey.
"Temperatures averaged across the globe are at a record all-time high, and have been for a number of years. They are driven predominantly by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, that result from our continued use of fossil fuels.
"Until we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can expect to see continued upward trends in global averaged temperatures."
That's the latest news folks. So how about ditching fossil fuels, eh????

Many thanx to the BBC