Friday, June 1, 2018

Keeping Global Warming to 1.5 Degrees Could Spare Millions Pain of Dengue Fever

The tropical disease is spread by mosquitoes that thrive in the wetter, hotter conditions that accompany climate change. 
By Neela Banerjee
May 2Under mosquito nets, young patients are treated for dengue fever at a hospital in Paraguay. Limiting global warming could avoid millions of new cases each year, research shows. Credit: Norberto Duarte/AFP/Getty Images

Faster international action to control global warming could halt the spread of dengue fever in the Western Hemisphere and avoid more than 3 million new cases a year in Latin America and the Caribbean by the end of the century, scientists report.

The tropical disease, painful but not usually fatal, afflicts hundreds of millions of people around the world. There is no vaccine, so controlling its spread by reining in global warming would be a significant health benefit.

The study is one of several recently published that attempt to quantify the benefits of cutting pollution fast enough to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. It also projects infection patterns at 2 degrees of warming and 3.7 degrees, a business-as-usual case.

Scientists have predicted that climate change could create the wetter, hotter conditions that favor diseases spread by various insects and parasites. This study focuses on one widespread disease and on one geographical region.
Half a Degree Can Make a Big Difference
Published May 29 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, ⦁ the study was conducted by researchers from the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom and the Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso in Brazil.
It is part of an urgent effort by scientists around the world to collect evidence on the difference between 2 degrees of warming and 1.5 degrees, under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is due to report on the latest science this fall.

Either target would require bringing net emissions of carbon dioxide to zero within the next several decades, the IPCC has projected, but to stay within 1.5 degrees would require achieving the cuts much more rapidly.
Avoiding 3.3 Million Cases a Year 
Without greater ambition, the study projected an additional 12.1 million annual cases of dengue fever in the Caribbean and Latin America by the end of the century.
By comparison, if warming is held to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times—the longstanding international climate goal—the number of estimated additional cases in the region falls to 9.3 million.

Controlling emissions to keep the temperature trajectory at 1.5 degrees Celsius would lower that to an annual increase of 8.8 million new cases.
The increase in infection is driven in great part by how a warmer world extends the dengue season when mosquitoes are breeding and biting.

The study found that areas where the dengue season would last more than three months would be "considerably" smaller if warming is constrained to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Which Countries in the Region are Most at Risk?

The areas most affected by the increase in dengue would be southern Mexico, the Caribbean, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and the coastal regions of Brazil. In Brazil alone, global warming of no more than 1.5 degrees might prevent 1.4 million dengue cases a year.

The study found that under the 3.7 degree scenario, considered "business as usual," dengue fever could spread to regions that have historically seen few cases. Keeping to 1.5 degrees could limit such a geographical expansion.

People living in previously untouched areas would have less built-up immunity and would be more likely to get sick, while public health providers in some such places "are woefully unprepared for dealing with major dengue epidemics," the authors warned.

                        Neela Banerjee
Neela Banerjee is a Washington-based reporter for Inside Climate News. She led the investigation into Exxon's early climate research, which was a finalist for the 2016 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service reporting and the recipient of nearly a dozen other journalism awards. Before joining ICN, she spent four years as the energy and environmental reporter for the Los Angeles Times' Washington bureau. Banerjee covered global energy, the Iraq War and other issues with The New York Times. She also served as a Moscow correspondent with The Wall Street Journal. Banerjee grew up in southeast Louisiana and graduated from Yale University.
You can reach her by email at For encrypted communication, use
Thanx Neela  Banerjee

Knight Jonny  C.


  1. Knight aunt Jeannie ,
    Mama said to go to the secret place
    Love Knight Jonny C.

  2. You guys is amazing , warning people of the dangers of how dengue fever is spread and climate change is hastening it's it to spread .Not only is the Caribbean / Latin American at risk all the swampy lands along the cast of the US and else where , also everyone needs to empty all old containers with water because mosquitoes and other pesky bugs love it and they can transfer the disease from pets to humans .
    Yes Neela grew up here she will stop by whenever she's in town .
    Great post ....Love you very much
    Knight Mama

    1. Hi Mama Knight ,
      Almost everything is at odds with each other , we have a lot of work to do and not much ti work with .
      It was so nice to meet Ms. Neela Banerjee , her home is here and what a surprise to know uncle Jon taught her in high school .Ms. Benerjee said we was welcome to use any of her articles and ahe will send us some from time to time and visit whenever she's in town . Ms. Benerjee asked which asked which sister was sassy like you Man and I said Sha at the same time , we told her Jenny had a mouth like you .
      I hope this post help people to be more careful ,it's easy for insects to spread disease , they keep getting more immune to the vaccines each year.
      Thank you Knight Mama .
      How I love Thee , let me count the numbers , I will get back with you in a couple hundred years .
      Love you mama
      Knight Jonny C.

  3. Knight Jonny
    This is very serious and important business. I am glad you wrote about it. The warmer, wetter weather will definitely help the spread of Dengue. Mama is right. All tropical, swampy areas are perfect breeding grounds. There are a lot of other diseases spread by insects that the warmer climate is helping to spread. In Canada, at the moment, We are having an abnormally large crop of tics and they are spreading Lyme disease faster than any other year. Our scientists said it was because of the warmer weather. And mosquitoes are spreading West Nile disease. Twenty years ago we had never even heard of West Nile disease. It is a tropical disease.
    People have to realize how the changes in climate will affect their health and their children's health.
    Very well done knight Jonny,
    Hugs and kisses
    love Aunt Jeannie

    1. Hi Knight aunt Jeannie,
      Why can't people understand that we need to work more diligently and pay attention to the scientists , It's more things we can do , we went to Della and Dora's house to help them move some stuff , going up there street was old cars , refrigerators in the yard seems like they were there a long time . their block was nice and need .
      some of the houses was empty . I told Sha I bet there are mites like you had in those houses .
      Daddy said those fools defeated themselves before they started . I think we are making a little headway.
      Thank you aunt Jeannie
      Love you a bunch .
      Knight Jonny C .

  4. June 2 , 2018
    This month------25

  5. June 3 , 2018
    This month------37